“Households' economic attitudes have declined modestly over the last six months, ... But the level suggests consumers remain very optimistic about their personal financial condition.”
“The signals in the manufacturing sector have become quite mixed. The diffusion indices suggest a slowing pace of growth while the factory and durable goods reports indicate an acceleration. In the past, when this type of divergence has occurred, the diffusion indices have usually been the better indicator.”
“This relative stability has been remarkable given the ebbs and flows in job creation, the equity markets, the conflict in Iraq, the election campaign, interest rates and gasoline prices.”
“Consumers still remain optimistic about the future despite having some concerns about the present. This is very typical of a business cycle turning point,”
“Despite a robust economy and tight labor markets, inflation is still low and steady. These data provide some relief for the Federal Open Market Committee.”
“While some of the decline was related to the effects of Hurricane Floyd, the fact that all four regions fell suggests that higher mortgage rates are also having a constraining effect.”
“[Nonetheless, while there still is forward momentum in manufacturing,] it appears to be less robust than earlier in the year, ... These data add to the mosaic showing a still-strong but more slowly expanding factory sector: good news for the Federal Reserve.”
“The Fed will welcome this report as it suggests that slower economic growth will be extended into the third quarter. The probability of an August rate increase continues to diminish and is now below 50 percent.”