“You have so many unknowns. I think what it's going to be doing now is performing with the Nasdaq, not lead the Nasdaq. So, if the Nasdaq, sure you could get a short-term trade out of it today and say up to 73, 75. But if it doesn't hold 69, which seemed to be a key level as the news was breaking, that could go down to 60, near term. That's where I would put some longer-term money in.”
“All year long, it's been a tale of two markets. The momentum on the Dow is declining, and the Dow last week failed at its 200-day moving average, which is declining, two things that are negative for the Dow and for 'old economy' stocks. Whereas on the Nasdaq, since the big correction that we had, the Nasdaq momentum is now rising, and it traded back above its 200-day moving average, which is still rising. Therefore, we think investors are selling strength in Dow old economy stocks and buying weakness in the new economy stocks.”
“It's a question of how long you've owned it. If you've owned it from 1997 levels, maybe you own from $30 a share post splits. And if that's the case, you want to take a look at how much money did I have invested in Microsoft two, three, or four years ago, how much money do I have invested in Microsoft now, and maybe pare it back a little due to the uncertainty.”
“Greenspan is at risk of losing his credibility, based upon the fact he was so upbeat two or three weeks ago, ... If they don't bring rates up at this meeting, he will lose credibility -- that would send a horrible message to markets.”
“I think there's still a lot of investors -- particularly the shorter-term investors -- who are looking to sell strength. They're trying to shore up their accounts by selling strength in this market. They've just had a lot of problems and they were obviously some hurting portfolios, if you will, based upon the declines that we saw for March and for May.”
“When we've had company-specific disappointments like this over the past two years, we've seen buyers come in after the midday to snap up bargains. If that doesn't happen, it could be very bad. We could see the Dow at 10,500, which would be a blow less than a week after everyone was talking about tripping over 11,000.”
“That [moving-average] rollover is the mirror image of a bullish crossover that happened in March/April of 2003, ... That gives a significant amount of risk to the market.”
“I am optimistic about most of the stocks in the market because I think it's only the Dow and the transports that have a negative profile right now. We've evaluated and came up with 10 sectors that we thought were positioned the best in the year 2000, and moving forward in terms of providing leadership in the economy. And then in that ”
“That [moving-average] rollover is the mirror image of a bullish crossover that happened in March/April of 2003. That gives a significant amount of risk to the market.”
